New refugee arrival Somali father with his son collecting notebooks and a pen so he can be educated

There is a political crisis of vast proportions evolving in the Horn of Africa.
Urgent action is required to ensure that instability does not escalate.
Armed violence is widespread and transnational. Poverty, corruption and crime are endemic. The tensions building in the region should cause great alarm. Having followed unfolding events in the Horn for a couple of years, I have grown increasingly concerned about human security in the region. There are many critical processes unfolding which require quick, decisive action from regional and world leaders. As I am currently in Kenya, I will start here.

On January 23rd, the pre-trial chamber of the International Criminal Court (ICC) made their ruling on the fate of Kenya’s ‘Ocampo Six’, political leaders and other public figures accused of inciting the violence that erupted in Kenya following the disputed general election in 2007, when as many as 1,400 people died and 650,000 were displaced from their homes. Four of the suspects will face charges of crimes against humanity in the Hague. Among them are two prospective presidential candidates, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto, neither of which has expressed an inclination to discontinue his presidential bid, despite Uhuru’s decision to stand down as Minister of Finance (though oddly remaining instated as deputy prime minister). These prominent figures have great influence in Kenya both on the political stage but also, allegedly on a more sinister level as orchestrators of extra-state armed groups who are paid (likely from the public purse) to ensure political allegiance to their patrons. This reality is reflective of the widespread corruption and the commonplace and longstanding nature of politically motivated violence and intimidation in Kenya. It is my opinion that all indicted individuals should remove themselves from political life until their innocence is proven at the ICC. Though most Kenyans I speak to believe that their people want peace, the possibility that a minority might become violent should be acknowledged and addressed. Civil unrest in Kenya is the last thing the region needs. The importance of Kenya’s stability to the Horn of Africa cannot be overestimated.

Aside from the serious political and ethnic tensions in the domestic sphere, Kenya is also engaged in an international conflict, working in alliance with Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and with both explicit and tacit support from powerful world leaders, to defeat the al-Qaeda-linked-al-Shabaab militia inside Somalia. The government has been cagey about their troops’ deployment, especially with regard to Kenyan casualties. Though reports coming from Somalia indicate that Kenyan-TFG forces have the upper-hand, one should take into consideration al Shabaab’s extensive paramilitary training and the absolute dedication and willingness-to-die of their operatives. The conflict could prove to be both protracted and bloody.

Also, among Kenyan Muslims (ethnic Somalis and others) there is growing ‘radicalisation’, especially among the male youth in Northeastern Province, in Nairobi and other cities and within Coast Province. This development raises major internal security concerns for Kenya, where deadly attacks have recently been carried out by both Kenyans and Somalis. Recent analysis from the International Crisis Group (ICG) urges the Kenyan government to take immediate action against Islamic radicalisation, but with care not to view the problem entirely through an anti-terrorism lens. I can see why their directive is sound but worry that Kenyan politicians will be too concerned with domestic political manoeuvring in the lead up to the general election which could now take place as late as March 2013, depending on whether the ruling ‘coalition’ remains intact.

Northern Kenya and Somalia border Ethiopia, a country now notable for its long-standing dictator who continues to repress all political opposition. Armed groups move freely across porous borders in the ‘badlands’ of the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia is engaged with armed secessionist movements. Recently, two Swedish journalists were jailed on terrorism charges after being apprehended while travelling with members the Ogaden National Liberation Front, a movement of ethnic Somalis fighting for independence. To me, the Ethiopian government is sending a clear message to foreigners: sovereignty is supreme, so don’t mess. This hardline adherence to the ‘rules’ of sovereignty, propagated by political elites poorly reflects the wishes of the peoples that populate the arid and semi-arid lands of the Horn. One of many examples is the residence of indigenous ethnic Somalis, who have a very strong shared cultural heritage in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. Their marginalisation in Ethiopia and Kenya has provoked violent dissent. Elsewhere, cultural groups reside in transnational geographical spaces and may feel more strongly bonded with members of their tribe than their ‘nationality’. Tutsi people live in Rwanda, Burundi and the Congo and have been victim to horrifying acts of ethnic cleansing in all three. I do not intend to ‘take sides’ and I appreciate that many ethnic groups have grievances; I have merely chosen these examples to illustrate the point. Notions of sovereignty on such an ethnic landscape result in a misfit that has propagated decades of violence throughout the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region. Hard-headed adherence to the accepted centralised nation-state model has yielded highly unsatisfactory results throughout this part of East Africa. Reconsiderations must be made at all levels of government in order to create the peace that is necessary for the wounds of war and neglect to heal.

Moving West into Sudan and South Sudan, one can see another regional tinderbox coming dangerously close the point of conflagration. Oil production has been halted in South Sudan amid accusations that the Northern government in Khartoum has stolen over $815-worth of crude oil from flowing out of the South which relies on Khartoum for access to export infrastructure. South Sudan is the newest breakaway state in the world and surely their successful bid for succession stokes the moral of secessionist movements elsewhere. If this decades-old civil conflict is reincarnated as an international war, instability throughout the region can be expected to increase. We must wait and see if regional leaders heed Ban Ki Moon’s recent appeal for them to extend diplomatic efforts to break the deadlock and avert crisis in the Sudans, where violence still claims many lives.

Somewhat on the sidelines, Eritrea was recently accused by the Kenyan authorities of supplying planeloads of weaponry to al-Shabaab militiamen inside Somali, bolstering their efforts to thwart Kenya’s military invasion of al-Shabaab-controlled Southern Somalia. These allegations undoubtedly increase tensions between Eritrea and both Ethiopia and Kenya.

Doubtless I have ignored many of the facets of this marked and worrying regional instability. I simply want to convey why I am so concerned about the future of this part of Africa where innocent people have undergone generations of suffering. This blogpost is another effort to increase awareness about these issues. I fear that people in the West are too far removed from this reality and fail to appreciate the extent and severity of suffering that ordinary people experience as a result of political instability and armed conflict.

As those of you who have read my posts in the past will know, my interest in and compassion for the residents of Dadaab Refugee Camps draws my focus. Having recently learned a lot about Dadaabian refugees I am compelled once again to plea for people to make donations which will be used in efforts to relieve immediate suffering, develop sustainable educational programmes and give a voice to Dadaab’s residents, empowering them to tell their stories to the world (watch this space for news of a coming short documentary). Increasing awareness is an important early step to mobilising funding and other resources to solve real problems facing marginalised people. Please share this post with others who might be interested. Efforts to relieve suffering in the camps at Dadaab are beset by all manner of challenges, one of which is insufficient funding. Remarkably, many people in the camps are able to live with dignity, harbour hopes for peace and share the little they have with those less fortunate. Facing the adversities they do, would you? Though it is hard to find accurate figures, I believe that Dadaab is probably the biggest camp that has ever existed. New arrivals continue to flood in, resettlement to third countries is far too slow to compensate for the influx and the camps continue to swell, bursting at the seams. If you are in a position to make even a small donation to VOA for the development our projects working with Dadaabians and former-Dadaabians it will be greatly appreciated. Please do forward the link for this post to anyone you think may be interested. They need our help now.